Critical Minerals Supply Concentration Risk
China controls 60-80 percent of critical mineral supply chains essential to the global energy transition. For rare earth elements, China holds 60 percent of mining and 91 percent of refining capacity. For battery materials, China controls 80 percent or more of midstream and downstream processing, and over 95 percent for some cathode materials. If China were excluded from supply, remaining lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth supplies would cover only 35-40 percent of projected global demand by 2035. China imposed new export controls in 2025, and the IEA warned this dependence could spark tensions from 2026 onward.
Probability
Horizon: 10y
Claims
China controls over 60 percent of rare earth mining and 91 percent of refining, creating a single-supplier dependency for the energy transition comparable to OPEC's historical oil dominance.
IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 provides the definitive data. The 91 percent refining share is measured, not estimated. The OPEC analogy is directionally valid though imperfect, as minerals lack a cartel pricing mechanism. Evidence Level B.
Indicators
- • China controls 91 percent of global rare earth refining
- • China controls 80 percent or more of battery material midstream processing
- • Non-Chinese supply covers only 35-40 percent of projected 2035 demand
- • China imposed new export controls on gallium, germanium, and antimony in 2025
- • Western mine permitting averages 10-15 years versus 2-3 years in China
- • IEA head publicly warned of tensions from 2026 onward
Interactions
Sources
- IEA — Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- IEA — 2026 Ministerial Declaration on Critical Minerals (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- ODI — Critical Minerals Geopolitics in 2026 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- IRENA — Critical Materials for the Energy Transition (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))