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Crisis Anatomies
Deep ontological models for 13 crises. Each anatomy maps actors, resources, physical environment, supply chains, thresholds, feedback loops, phases, precedents, and visibility gaps.
13
Crises Modeled
85
Total Actors
48
Total Thresholds
369
Total Elements
Institutional Trust Collapse
10 layers
44 elements
11 actors 5 resources physical 3 supply chains 5 thresholds 6 loops 6 phases 5 precedents 6 gaps meta
70%
resilience: LOW
Active Iran-US/Israel Military Conflict
10 layers
41 elements
Shift
9 actors 6 resources physical 3 supply chains 5 thresholds 4 loops 6 phases 5 precedents 6 gaps meta
95%
resilience: Low
Climate Tipping Point Cascades
10 layers
38 elements
Shift
8 actors 5 resources physical 3 supply chains 7 thresholds 5 loops 5 phases 3 precedents 5 gaps meta
35%
resilience: Low
Multi-State Middle East Regional War
10 layers
29 elements
9 actors 3 resources physical 3 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 4 gaps meta
40%
resilience: Very
Great Power Military Conflict
10 layers
28 elements
Shift
5 actors 4 resources physical 3 supply chains 4 thresholds 4 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 4 gaps meta
10%
resilience: Moderate
Major Shipping Chokepoint Closure or Blockade
10 layers
25 elements
6 actors 3 resources physical 3 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
90%
resilience: Very
Biodiversity Collapse and Ecosystem Service Failure
10 layers
25 elements
6 actors 2 resources physical 2 supply chains 3 thresholds 4 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
30%
resilience: Moderate
Systemic Supply Chain Failure
10 layers
25 elements
5 actors 4 resources physical 4 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
20%
resilience: Very
Agricultural Topsoil Loss Reaching Crisis Levels
10 layers
24 elements
6 actors 2 resources physical 2 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
50%
resilience: Low.
Russia-NATO Direct Confrontation
10 layers
24 elements
Shift
5 actors 3 resources physical 2 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
8%
resilience: Moderate
Arctic Permafrost Thaw Releasing Stored Methane
10 layers
23 elements
Shift
5 actors 2 resources physical 1 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 3 gaps meta
55%
resilience: Very
Ocean Acidification Disrupting Marine Food Chains
10 layers
22 elements
5 actors 2 resources physical 2 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 3 precedents 2 gaps meta
85%
resilience: Very
Amazon Rainforest Tipping Point and Dieback
10 layers
21 elements
Shift
5 actors 2 resources physical 2 supply chains 3 thresholds 3 loops 4 phases 2 precedents 2 gaps meta
30%
resilience: Low