Landscape
Ark Instinct exists within a rich ecosystem of projects working on crisis intelligence, resilience, and civilizational preparedness. We are not the first and we are not alone. These are the organizations, platforms, and communities whose work overlaps with ours — allies, data sources, and potential collaborators.
Crisis Research & Analysis
Organizations producing rigorous crisis and risk research
Quantitative catastrophic food resilience modeling. Government partnerships. 29 GitHub repos with nuclear winter, financial cascade, and water access models.
How we relate
Their quantitative crisis models are the gold standard. We study their methodology and could integrate their data.
Formal risk analysis of global catastrophic risks using event trees and expected value of perfect information models.
How we relate
Their risk taxonomy and formal methods inform our crisis evaluation approach.
Cambridge University research center studying extinction-level and civilizational risks.
How we relate
Academic rigor on existential risk. Their publications feed our framework studies.
Daniel Schmachtenberger's metacrisis research. Governance redesign and collective intelligence.
How we relate
Best articulation of the "metacrisis" concept. Intellectual alignment but they're a think tank, not builders.
Forecasting & Prediction
Platforms aggregating probability estimates on global events
Open-source forecasting platform with 23K+ questions and 3.6M+ predictions. Nuclear Risk Horizons Project. AI risk conditional trees.
How we relate
Primary data source for our probability estimates. Their API feeds our crisis map.
Play-money prediction market with broad user-generated question coverage including pandemic, AI, and geopolitical markets.
How we relate
Second probability data source. Free API, wide coverage of crisis topics.
Largest crypto prediction market. High-liquidity geopolitical markets (Iran, China-Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine).
How we relate
Highest-liquidity real-money signal on geopolitical crises.
Philip Tetlock's superforecasting methodology. Elite individual forecasters with verified track records.
How we relate
Their methodology defines best practice in probability assessment. We seek to collaborate with their forecasters.
Community Resilience Networks
Organizations building resilient communities and mutual aid networks
20-node community-led resilience hub network on Hawaii Island. Proven in actual disasters since 2018 Kilauea eruption.
How we relate
Closest real-world implementation of networked resilient communities. Model we study.
Thousands of local groups worldwide since 2007 building community self-sufficiency for climate and economic resilience.
How we relate
Pioneer of grassroots resilience. Their community model informs our thinking.
Network of popup communities testing governance, technology, and collective living across continents.
How we relate
Building network-of-communities infrastructure. Complementary framing (flourishing vs. resilience).
Crisis Mapping & Data
Tools and platforms for tracking and mapping crises
Pioneer crisis mapping platform. 150,000+ deployments in 160 countries since 2008. Open source.
How we relate
Proven collaborative crisis data collection architecture. Relevant infrastructure pattern.
Largest open database of human society. Monitors world news in 100+ languages, tracking events, tone, and themes.
How we relate
Primary global newsfeed analysis source for our crisis indicator monitoring.
Knowledge Preservation & Offline Systems
Projects preserving knowledge and capability for crisis scenarios
Self-contained offline survival computer with AI and knowledge base. 21,000+ GitHub stars. Functions without internet.
How we relate
Proves massive demand for civilizational resilience tools. Their community is our audience.
Species-level agricultural preservation. 1.3M+ seed samples from every country. Arctic permafrost storage.
How we relate
The canonical example of the Ark Instinct at civilizational scale. A reference case in our historical patterns.
EA & Longtermism
Effective altruism and longtermist communities working on existential risk
Richest intellectual home for civilizational resilience discussion. Civilizational refuges working group. SHELTER research. Post-catastrophe recovery hotspot analysis.
How we relate
Key community for recruiting contributors. Their research directly informs our work.