Haiti State Collapse
Gang violence has displaced 1.4 million people in Haiti. Over half the population faces crisis-level hunger. Gangs control approximately 85 percent of Port-au-Prince and most supply routes. The country has no functioning government. Health, education, and justice systems have effectively collapsed. This represents complete state failure in the Western Hemisphere and a precedent for how organized crime can fully capture a sovereign state.
Probability
Horizon: 5y
Claims
Haiti represents the first complete state capture by organized criminal gangs in the Western Hemisphere, with no functioning government and armed groups controlling the capital and supply infrastructure.
IRC, World Bank FCS classification, and Crisis Group field reporting all classify Haiti as a collapsed state. Gang territorial control is documented by ACLED and UN BINUH. Evidence Level B.
Indicators
- • Gangs control 85 percent of Port-au-Prince
- • 1.4 million internally displaced
- • Over half the population facing crisis-level hunger
- • No functioning government or legitimate political authority
- • Health and education systems collapsed
- • International security mission unable to restore order
Interactions
Sources
- IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 (#5 Haiti) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- OCHA Haiti Humanitarian Response (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- WHO Grade 3 Emergency — Haiti (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- World Bank Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations List FY26 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))