Land Degradation and Desertification
40 percent of Earth's land surface is degraded, affecting half of humanity. Degraded area expands by 1 million square kilometers annually, an area larger than Egypt each year. Food systems cause 80 percent of deforestation and 70 percent of freshwater use. In the last decade, deforestation and climate change reduced the carbon dioxide absorption capacity of trees and soil by 20 percent. The crisis is self-reinforcing: degraded land reduces rainfall, which accelerates further degradation. UNCCD COP16 in Riyadh addressed the crisis but binding commitments remain limited.
Probability
Horizon: 10y
Claims
40 percent of Earth's land surface is degraded, with the rate of degradation exceeding restoration capacity by an order of magnitude.
UNCCD Global Land Outlook 2 provides the definitive assessment, compiled from remote sensing data and national land use surveys. The 40 percent figure is consistent with IPCC AR6 and FAO SOLAW estimates. Measurement methodology is robust for aggregate trends though local precision varies. Evidence Level B.
Indicators
- • 40 percent of Earth's land surface degraded
- • 1 million square kilometers degraded annually
- • 80 percent of deforestation driven by food systems
- • 20 percent decline in terrestrial carbon sink capacity in one decade
- • Sahel degradation-drought feedback loop accelerating
- • UNCCD COP16 held with drought protocol on agenda, indicating institutional alarm
Interactions
Sources
- UNCCD — Global Land Outlook 2 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- UNCCD COP16 Riyadh — Outcomes (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- Potsdam Institute — Terrestrial Carbon Sink Decline (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- FAO — State of the World's Land and Water Resources (SOLAW) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))