Myanmar Multi-Crisis (Coup, Civil War, Natural Disaster)
Armed conflict between the military junta and resistance forces across Myanmar has been compounded by a devastating 2025 earthquake. 16.2 million people need humanitarian assistance, 3 million are displaced, and the junta controls decreasing territory as ethnic armed organizations and the People's Defence Force make advances. 59 journalists are imprisoned. Rohingya remain displaced. Drug production surges in ungoverned areas, making Myanmar the world's largest methamphetamine production hub.
Probability
Horizon: 5y
Claims
Myanmar has become the world's largest methamphetamine production hub, with ungoverned border zones enabling industrial-scale drug manufacturing.
UNODC World Drug Report 2025 documents Myanmar as the primary source of Southeast Asian methamphetamine. Seizure data from Thailand, Laos, and China corroborates. Evidence Level B.
Indicators
- • 18.6 million people needing humanitarian assistance
- • 3 million internally displaced
- • 59 journalists imprisoned (RSF)
- • Junta losing territorial control to resistance forces
- • Methamphetamine production at record levels
- • Rohingya remain stateless and displaced across region
Interactions
Sources
- IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 (#6 Myanmar) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- WHO Grade 3 Emergency — Myanmar (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- UNODC World Drug Report 2025 — Southeast Asia (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- RSF World Press Freedom Index 2025 — Myanmar (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))