Pollinator Collapse
US beekeepers reported 70-100 percent colony losses in 2025, the highest ever recorded. Average commercial losses reached 62 percent between June 2024 and March 2025. The primary driver is Varroa destructor mites now resistant to amitraz, the most widely used treatment. Over 87 percent of flowering plants and 87 leading food crops rely on pollinators. A Nature Communications study projects 8 percent crop yield decline in Europe from wild pollinator loss, with global welfare declining by EUR 34 billion by 2030. Unlike many crises, pollinator collapse cannot be solved by human intervention alone because hand-pollination at scale is not feasible.
Probability
Horizon: 10y
Claims
US beekeepers reported 70-100 percent colony losses in 2025, the highest ever recorded, driven primarily by amitraz-resistant Varroa destructor mites.
Project Apis M. is the primary US colony loss monitoring body. USDA ARS confirms amitraz resistance as the leading driver. The 62 percent average commercial loss figure is from systematic survey data. Evidence Level B.
Indicators
- • US colony losses at 62-100 percent (highest on record)
- • Varroa destructor amitraz resistance spreading
- • 40 percent of insect species globally declining
- • $577B in crops dependent on animal pollination
- • 87 percent of flowering plant species require animal pollination
- • Wild bee species declining faster than managed honey bees
Interactions
Sources
- USDA — Honey Bee Colony Health and Management (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- Project Apis M. — Colony Loss Survey 2024-2025 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- Nature Communications — European Crop Yield Decline from Pollinator Loss (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- Yale E360 — Pollinator Crisis and Agriculture (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- Cambridge Pollinator Risk Index (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))