Sahel Security Collapse (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)
Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled Western forces and turned to Russian Wagner/Africa Corps mercenaries, but failed to defeat jihadist insurgencies (JNIM, ISSP). JNIM imposed a partial blockade on Bamako in September 2025. 5.6 million displaced expected by end of 2026. 55 million face crisis-level hunger in the June-August lean season. Humanitarian response is only 18.5 percent funded. Jihadist expansion threatens coastal West Africa.
Probability
Horizon: 5y
Claims
The Sahel represents the world's fastest-expanding jihadist insurgency, with JNIM and ISSP now threatening coastal West African states.
ACLED conflict data and ICG field reporting confirm southward expansion of jihadist operations. JNIM's Bamako blockade is documented fact. Evidence Level B (expert field assessment).
Indicators
- • 55 million face crisis-level hunger in lean season
- • 5.6 million displacement projected by end of 2026
- • Humanitarian response only 18.5 percent funded
- • JNIM besieging national capitals
- • Terror plots detected in North Africa and Southern Europe
- • All three states under military junta rule with no democratic transition timeline
Interactions
Amplifies
Sources
- ICG Ten Conflicts to Watch 2026 — Sahel (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 (#8 Mali, #9 Burkina Faso) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- UNHCR Sahel Emergency (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker — Sahel (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))