Sudan Civil War and Humanitarian Catastrophe
The world's worst humanitarian crisis. Civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has killed an estimated 150,000-400,000 people since April 2023, displaced 14 million (the largest displacement crisis globally), and produced confirmed IPC Phase 5 famine conditions in multiple regions. Of Sudan's 48 million people, 33.7 million require humanitarian assistance. The health system has collapsed, with 37 percent of facilities non-functional and 201 verified attacks on healthcare.
Probability
Horizon: 5y
Claims
Sudan is the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with confirmed famine and death toll estimates reaching 150,000-400,000.
IPC Phase 5 determination is the gold standard for famine classification (Evidence Level A). Death toll estimates from Concern Worldwide, IRC, and epidemiological modeling converge on this range despite data gaps.
Indicators
- • IPC Phase 5 famine confirmed in multiple regions
- • 14 million internally displaced — largest displacement crisis globally
- • 37 percent of health facilities non-functional
- • 201 verified attacks on healthcare (WHO)
- • Complete information blackout in large areas of Darfur and Kordofan
- • Humanitarian funding only partially covers $2.9B appeal
Interactions
Sources
- OCHA Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 — Sudan ($2.9B appeal) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- IRC Emergency Watchlist 2026 (#1 crisis) (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- ICG Ten Conflicts to Watch 2026 — Sudan (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- WHO Grade 3 Emergency — Sudan (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))
- WFP Hunger Hotspot — Sudan IPC Phase 5 (accessed Fri Apr 03 2026 00:00:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time))