Methodology
The models and frameworks that govern how Ark Instinct structures its knowledge base. Each document defines one aspect of the system: how probabilities are assessed, how crisis interactions are mapped, how contributions are evaluated, and how epistemological pluralism works in practice.
Consensus Model — Epistemological Pluralism in Crisis Analysis
Every crisis analysis framework assumes a single epistemological frame. WEF assumes scientific-institutional consensus. Prepper communities assume institutional failure. Religious communities interpret events through prophetic frameworks. Each produces useful signal, but none captures the full picture. And people who don't share the assumed frame reject the entire analysis.
Read on GitHub →Contribution Model
Every entity contributes through the same interface. Entity type is recorded for transparency but does not affect how contributions are weighted.
Read on GitHub →Interaction Model — How Crises Cascade
Crises rarely occur in isolation. A supply chain collapse amplifies food insecurity. A pandemic triggers economic disruption. A geopolitical conflict cuts energy supplies, which cascades into manufacturing, which cascades into medical supply shortages. The interaction model maps these relationships.
Read on GitHub →Probability Model
Ark Instinct uses a hybrid probability assessment approach, synthesizing multiple estimation methods rather than relying on any single one. The methodology will be refined during Track 1 research as we study how existing frameworks assess risk.
Read on GitHub →